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How to Spot a Vulnerable Horse Racing Favourite

By admin on Thursday, September 2nd, 2010 | No Comments

Author: Max Redd http://www.ReddRacing.co.uk

As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people are looking to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what is the best strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply betting that the outsider will lose is a quick way to make easy money. In reality, the best horse to bet against is the race favourite.

Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ will come home in front, and you may well have laid him at a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more!

Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has the weight of the market’s money behind it, which forces the price down. Simple economics. There will be a point however, where the horse’s price is too low compared to it’s actual chance of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is where the layers will start to make a profit.

So we go ahead with this strategy, and we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.

Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers have made their profit for generations. But they are not priced too low every time – sometimes a favourite is the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.

If we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, after a while betting on the exchanges we would remain around the break even point, because the exchange markets are a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we would watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good.

So how do we know which favourites are true favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable?

One method is to analyse the positive aspects of a horse’s form. It will not surprise you to learn that more favourites win when they have fewer question marks against them. This is not rocket science, but taking the time to separate strong contenders from weak favourites will give you the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.

Below is a list of form criteria you can apply to the market leader in any given race:

1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today’s race.

2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today’s track or one with similar characteristics.

3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.

4. Horse and Race Distance: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today’s distance.

5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.

6. Horse and Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today’s ground.

7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today’s track.

8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days.

9. Jockey and Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on today’s track.

Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or otherwise is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for example) that a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.

As always the question of price will come into the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not want to get involved in laying him to lose.

On the other hand, when a 2yo filly steps hoof onto the track for the first time, and is offered at odds-on simply because she is ridden by Frankie Dettori on behalf of the Godolphin training empire, then you may want to consider taking her on.

In summary: race favourites are often a profitable source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered at prices too low compared to their actual chance of winning. Take the time to analyse key aspects of the horse’s form and judge whether they are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. If you decide they are vulnerable to defeat and the price is short enough, then you have identified a good lay bet.

About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk

About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk

What Horses, Billionaires, And Musicians All Have In Common

By admin on Wednesday, September 1st, 2010 | No Comments

Have you ever noticed how some horses appear to do things effortlessly? Now to the uninitiated, it appears the horse is naturally gifted at what he’s doing. However, most horsey people will know that that’s
not how it actually is.
 
The formula that any good horse trainer follows to produce a successful horse is patience, time and consistency. There are other parts to the formula as well, but these are definitely enormously important.
 
Now strange enough, it’s not just horses that profit from that formula, business people also do. Take the famous billionaire Donald Trump for example, he became rich using he same formula. He used time
to his advantage and was consistent in what he did to get where he is.
 
Musicians use the formula. I’m a guitarist myself.  Been one for over thirty years, and I generally play every other day for some period of time. When I wish to learn a new tune or rift I will play it over and over because I want to burn the memory of it into my fingers.  It’s called muscle memory.
 
After I’ve practiced it so many times, I can literally have a conversation with someone while I play it because my fingers simply do it without me having to think about it. Likewise, horses have to practice to get good. Basically experts agree that for a horse to learn a new cue takes approximately 300 – 400 repetitions, and in order to become an expert can take up to 3000 repetitions.
 
So when teaching a horse new cues, be patient and take the time it takes for him to understand what you are asking and then practice the new skill over and over until it is ingrained into his repertoire. Remember it takes time to introduce something new. It’s not much different for us humans either. I can tell you from a musician’s perspective, to learn a new song or a lick from a song takes a while, and to get really good at it takes a lot of practice and repetition.
 
Even knowing this and understanding the formula of time, patience ad consistency we as horse owners want our horses to be good at something overnight. Remember that just doesn’t happen.
         

http://everythingbutthehorse.net/training-your-horse/

I have trained and bred Arabian horses for over twenty years and have developed my skills through the guidance and philosophies of some of the greatest ‘natural horseman’ of their day. I have been influenced by such greats as Monty Roberts, Tom Dorrance and Ray Hunt. I only endorse techniques in horse training that comply with the philosophy that ‘violence is never the answer’.

http://everythingbutthehorse.net
http://horselibrary.blogspot.com/

The Betting Tactics on Horse Racing

By admin on Tuesday, August 31st, 2010 | No Comments

Betfair, a British firm introduced the betting exchange few years back and now the company has developed so rapidly that conventional bookmakers set the betting prices for many sports including horseracing. Therefore, bookmakers have to contact and consult the betting exchange to know about the happenings of racing in the betting exchange.

 

This betting exchange allows punters to place bets at odd sets. Members need to place back bets (regular bets on selection for winning) as well as lay bets (against the selection) that eliminate the role of a traditional bookmaker.

 

Betfair makes use of decimal odds. These codes are easy to calculate as compared to fractional odds. The bookmaking model thus brings two separate entities of opposing views. Therefore, it makes odds 20 % better as opposed to bookmaker’s odds. Betfair punters can also offer their own odds and company may charge a little commission on all bets that person wins.

 

The commission is mostly uniform for many markets, which is 5%, and it is possible for individuals to reduce the commissions to 2%.

 

Horse Racing On Betfair:

 

Select the horse: First, you need to select the class of horse in the betting exchange. If a horse had five races in one year then divide the total winnings of the horse in that year by the number of track races which it ran.

 

However, what if a horse has earned high amount, but did not participate in five races in a year, in such case divide the net earnings by the number of races it ran in that year. Select the horse that has the highest average winnings.

 

Select the jockey: Choose the jockey having highest winning percentage.

 

Trainer: Select the trainer having highest winning percentage.

 

Speed: Consider the highest speed of the horse in the last sixty days.

 

After choosing the horse, place your bet. Assign percentage to each horse and convert these percentages to odds. It means you need to assign 10% for the horse possessing the qualities as described above, and assign each 10% to other factors as well. Later add all these percentages with the percentage of the horse. You will think that the horse may get more than 70%, but most of the times the best horse does not even come closer to 50%.

 

You need to determine odds by transforming percentages into fractions and then compare them using the table on your computer screen.  For instance, you need to assign 1/2 fraction for the horse 50% value. It means you can expect the horse to win in the half time.

 

Betting:

 

You can back or lay on any figure on the exchanges and you can lay as well as back the same selection again. In fact, this is one best approach to back the chosen horse at may be 12.00 (11/1) and lay at 9.00(8/1), because you will still make money even if your horse loses the race. There are few other aspects, which you master only after participating in the betting exchange. Thus, this is how you can bet on horse racing in Betfair.

About Eric Smith :


Eric Smith is a professional player on betfair and he has taught many friends and peers to make money on betting exchange, particularly on betfair. He cares very much about his readers who are reading this. Click to visit his website http://www.winningbetfair.com to find what he can do for you. The Effective Techniques he used and has made him $10,391 in 47 days with small stakes.

Horse Track Success

By admin on Sunday, August 29th, 2010 | No Comments

Hi, I’m Wilbur.  I am an expert on horses, well at least I think I am.  I have been around them for a large part of my life,  At first I was afraid of them and then after meeting a very special horse, I no longer fear them.  Horses have become my life.  With the tips I picked up from my friend, the hard work I put into study and research, I now make a nice living with horses.  The best part of all, it’s a hobby that I never have to get my hands dirty doing.  Let me share my knowledge with you.

When you are at the track, what is it that encourages you to pick your horse?  For some, it’s just the name and for others, it’s the odds.  I’m not going to tell you that this is wrong, I’m just going to tell you that my wild friend has a bit more insight and shared her secret with me.  See, my wild friend Fire, happens to know a lot more about horses than the average person and Fire also knows about the importance of trainers and how they train the horses.

There was a secret that fire shared with me.  I won’t get into the details as I have already posted them at another site.  What I will do is tell you he basics of what was said to me over at Mr. Ed’s farm.  Fire told me that you have to research the trainers, the horses blood lines and the jockey.  A good trainer will not break the horses spirit and they will also have a reputation for training winning horses.  Now as for the bloodlines, a stupid horse will produce a stupid colt, a slow horse will produce a slow colt and a fast horse will produce a winner. 

Now about that guy sitting on the horse.  Oh sure he might wear funny clothes to distract you from really studying him but now this is important.  If he is heavy and tall, he will not ride well.  If he is mean to the horse, the horse will not respond to him well.  If he looks like he is drunk, chances are he is and might actually go the wrong way on the track.

I hope you learned a lot from this article.  I didn’t add the part about how important brown balls were but here is a hint:  A fast horse eats a well diet. It eats enough to keep it healthy and therefore the extracts are normally the same every time.  Check to see if it’s deposit is pasty or firm.  Do the research and find out exactly how a health horse’s brown balls should look and feel.  Health is also important for a horse to win a race.

@ Details About My Resource (Fire At Mr. Ed’s Farm)

I’m just a person, like any one of you. I have had an interesting life, experienced a lot of things and enjoy writing. Life can be funny, entertaining and educational and I want to show eveyone all those things in my writings. Look for my name on articles. I promise to do my very best to keep you coming back.

Learn Horse Racing Handicapping and Enjoy the Sporting Life

By admin on Sunday, August 29th, 2010 | No Comments

Through the years many people discover horse racing and betting on horse races and decide to try to make a living or at least a profit from their bets.  It seems like such a fun way to make money.  An enjoyable day at the track, trying to decipher the mysteries of each race and to pick winners, it all seems so idyllic.

It usually starts with a little luck at first, commonly called beginner’s luck.  There is nothing like cashing a ticket that you bought for a few bucks and getting more money back to start the fires of greed burning.  Perhaps greed is too strong a word with negative connotations beyond what is actually going on with most race track goers, but the desire for easy money does fuel a lot of interest in horse racing.  That is an unfortunate situation.

First of all, you learn very quickly that consistently picking winners and making money betting on horse racing is not easy.  The harder you try, the harder it seems to become. You wonder why it seemed so easy at first and how you ever won.  It is because luck does play a part in horse racing handicapping, but also, and more importantly, so does skill, discipline, and hard work.

If you really want to learn how to handicap horse races and to make money betting on horses you have to work at it and develop your skill.  It is no different than any other skill such as playing a piano, ballroom dancing, playing poker.  It is sometimes called an intellectual sport.  In order to make a profit at it you’ll have to learn how to find a good bet, because that is really what it is all about.

If you only focus on the money, however, you will miss a lot of entertainment and fun, because following the horses, trainers, jockeys and all the drama and human and animal interest stories is part of what is known as the sporting life.  Whether you actually ever get to make a living by betting on horses, you will enjoy an interesting world of real life heroes and athletes, both the four footed and two legged.

While the money is important, if you manage to keep it all in perspective and don’t go overboard, you will enjoy it much more and discover why so many people choose the sporting life, going to horse races, and participating in other intellectual sports.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.

Horse Racing a Form of Recreation

By admin on Saturday, August 28th, 2010 | No Comments

Today, in America, betting is a multi billion annual industry, providing large tax revenues to the United States Government. This is probably the main reason why many forms of betting have been authorized in 48 out of 50 states. Horse betting is a legal activity, catching the attention of many people of different professions, financial status or ethnic background, all fascinated by the money, adventure and excitement offered by horse racing.

Many people practice horse betting as a sport, thus being a form of recreation for them after long oppressive hours spent in an office, deprived of the freedom that can be granted through horse racing. Wagers are placed for fun, but the prize money, in case there is a winner, is never enough, making the bettor feel confident and in good spirits. Although done only for fun, horse betting should follow some basic rules that any bettor has to be aware of in order to enjoy horse racing. Statistics show that half of the adult American population enjoys horse betting quite frequently, but it’s entirely up to them to apply these basic rules or simply trust their luck.

Never bet more than you can afford! A simple rule, easier said than done though. Many of the horse race bettors fall for this trap: at one point, either winning or losing, they are tempted to bet amounts they cannot afford. Don’t do that yourself! The only way you can enjoy the experience of betting on your favorite horse, either at the horse racing track or online, is to know from the very beginning exactly how much you can afford to lose. Betting a larger amount of money, especially when you are loosing, it’s a sure routine towards having your trust and self-esteem pressed flat by the iron of deception.

Don’t try to be a wise guy! Often, in the betting fever, you might get persuaded to “rely” on your friends’ recommendations, on how much, or what to bet on. Most of the time you’ll end up disappointed. It’s better to trust your instincts and make a smaller profit than to earn nothing or even lose. Learn the mechanisms of horse betting, find out how difficult it is to choose a potential winner in the horse racing world. Last, but not least, learn to enjoy the moment when you are rewarded for your wise bet. In order not to fail, you have to do some research on the horses’ previous performances, age, breeding, characteristics, jockeys and, why not, weather conditions. You can do this by visiting websites such as horse-info.net. Horse betting agencies take into account all these aspects when deciding the stakes. It is equally important to know all the imponderables of horse racing and predict how they might affect your chances of winning.

The pedigree of the main competitors in horse racing is a relevant piece of information, especially in the case of popular prestigious horse races such as Kentucky Derby. You can read books or access dedicated websites, such as horse-info.net, offering plenty of news, details or tips on horse racing. In horse betting, an important clue to consider is the number of races each horse runs per day. Sometimes, horses run in several races during the same day and they get tired. This might slow them down if not even make them lose the race. Another good advice is that the horse racing track is not the place to be misogynistic. Don’t underestimate female jockeys, as lately they’ve done wonders.

Even if you’ll find the key to successful horse betting on our website, the most important advice you’ll receive is not to forget to have fun while horse racing . Horse betting might offer you the adventure and uncertainty of a popular, beautiful sport, but it is up to you to learn to appreciate the endeavor dedicated to each and every race, the joint determination of the jockey-horse couple and the intense atmosphere of a race day.

Quick Tips For Better Betting on the Horses

By admin on Thursday, August 26th, 2010 | No Comments

Always set aside a separate amount of money for betting. This is called a betting bank. This must be money that you can afford to lose. If you start with a £200 betting bank stake only £10 that is 5% of the betting bank on a selection. If the selection wins then stake 5% of the new higher betting bank on the next selection. This means that your betting bank will increase nice and steady.

Back only horses, trainers and jockeys hitting top form. Any horse that wins outside of horses with good recent form is a surprise winner. Backing horses with good recent form gives you your best chance of coming out on top of our old enemy the bookmakers.

Make sure the horse you are backing goes on the ground. Many horses need the ground in their favour to produce their best form. Many top professional backers consider this the number one factor in race horse selection. Some horses only run to their best on heavy going, some only on firm going. Some horses will act on any going.

When betting each way or forecast betting try to put Kieren Fallons mounts in your bets as he gives every horse every chance and effort to finish in the places

80% of horses win at odds of 5/1 or less. So consider this in your patent and yankee and multiple bets.

In novice chases where some courses are difficult it is worth looking at some of the outsiders to back in the race as there are usually fallers.

Two strongly fancied 2/1 shots in an each way double usually gets your money back and some big payouts when they both win!

With over fifty different race courses in Britain it pays to specialize at certain courses. Some horses produce only their best form a certain tracks such as Cheltenham on the jumps or Epsom on the flat. This is usually marked with a C in the form guide in daily newspapers.

Entrepreneur, gambler and general all round good guy

Paul Coleman is a horse racing form study expert. You can get his free daily horse racing selections at: http://www.racing-expert.co.uk You also get more free information about horse racing at his blog: http://www.horseracing-confidential.blogspot.com

Horse Racing Systems – the Gamblers Lazy Way of Betting

By admin on Thursday, August 26th, 2010 | No Comments

Horseracing Systems are types of the that examine years of data, concerning different angles such as Trainers, Jockeys, Horses, Sires, Ground, Class, Courses, Favourites, Outsiders, Absences, Fitness, Owners, Ages of Horses, Weight Penalties and many more kinds of angle that have historically proven to be profitable over the years. Other typeshorseracing systems are more qualitative, and seek to incorporate changing conditions on an up-to-date basis. Most people also think that horse racing systems are just a joke. And yes, most of these horse racing systems are even guaranteed by the people selling them. As any professional gambler will inform you, nothing can be guaranteed in gaming.

Systems

Although for many of us the excitement of having a bet is what matters, one thing is for sure you can have a lot of fun running horseracing systems even if you don’t have a bet, in fact many people do just that. If you run various systems (covering diverging methods just as a share investor would cover diverging market sectors) throughout the year, you should be able to keep on profiting. Just as a stock market price can go up and down, a systems performance can go up and down too. Treat horse racing systems like trading on the stock market: keep a portfolio. It is far better to run a lot systems all at the same time, this spreads the risk.

Betting

The betting systems are too numerous to mention them all, it seems that every horse race enthusiast has his or her on horseracing system. Betting on horses can be one of the most profitable investment opportunities available, if approached in the right manner. Modern horse racing systems can rely on definitive the betting possibilities only offered on the betting exchanges. Such systems may lead you to alter your betting based on weather conditions at the track, or a adapt in jockeys. When not the betting with your “heart,” it is likely that you’ll win more consistently over time. Equally I know people who win funds at betting every year through analysis of Form, this is called method betting.

Horses

For years punters have always bet on horses because of form in some way. Form punters may not realise that various horses thrive on racing quickly even if they ran a stinker the day before. Another noteworthy factor in order for you to know which horse can win a race is by discovering out the last races of the horses. There are horses that show its prime racing form after a while of racing and there are horses that run good on short races but bad on long races. Take note of the letters C and D that sometimes appear in the horses. There can be only one reason why horses of six years kind of or more are kept in training: and that is because their connections believe they can still win races. If approached correctly, it’s simple to make regular and consistent profits by the betting on horses.

Funds

The systemites believe that the best chance you have of making bankroll is not through form analysis, but through past data and number crunching mounds of raw racing data in the past in an effort to identify successful avenues to profit. It is advised to only emergence with betting bank of ?50-?200 though while you get used to making money, handling banks, risk management, losing runs, stats, etc. Wagering bankroll on horse races is as kind of as the sport itself, but in the United Kingdom the links between horse racing, nationwide wagering and horse the systems are very strong. But whatever you do, have fun; don’t risk bankroll you should not and.

Conclusion

Horseracing systems can be based on monetary systems such as hedging (that is where one bets on different outcomes in a single race) and arbitrage (lay the horse a small price and back it at a high price). * Not all horseracing systems are competent, and all should be paper traded first.

Keith Driscoll has been a professional gambler since the late nineties, and now runs many sites, forums and blogs as Managing Director of Win2Win Limited. You can visit my site at http://www.win2win.co.uk Free Horse Racing Tips

Lots of Famous Race Horses Due to Their Performances

By admin on Tuesday, August 24th, 2010 | No Comments

The Horse racing is one of the oldest types of games. The development of the horse racing was completed very rapidly and it is conducted now everywhere in the world. There are also many types of horse racing. Some jockeys are taking the part in the horseracing since many years. But the main participants in the horse racing are the horses. Such racing horses are trained in the constant training sessions by trainers and the jockeys make the practice sessions with them. After all such efforts, the horses win the race.

Such horses become famous worldwide due to their performance. If you go on searching for famous race horses, then you can easily get the information about the famous race horses with their records, history and origin. On the basis of biographies of horses, you can get the numerous famous race horses. Following is the selection of few of such famous race horses, which have performed very well in the competitions.

Affirmed-

It is considered as world’s most renowned, famous and brilliant horse in the record of racing horses. Affirmed is the winner of Tripe Crown in 1978. Many such grand matches are owned by Affirmed. He represents the thoroughbred champions. Affirmed gives tough fight to other competitors and the thrilling rivalry of Alydar and Affirmed is famous everywhere. The book is also written on him for his legend.

Assault-

He is the king of all and won the Triple Crown of Texas bred. He was also winner in 1946 for Triple Crown. He is also Thoroughbred champion.

Barbaro-

Being the heart of America, the barbaro is one of the famous race horses. He won some of the awards like Kentucky Derby, Florida Derby and Holy Bull stakes. He is famous due to its injuries, treatment and hospitalization.

Cigar-

The retired horse form horse racing, the Cigar was one of the best players in Kentucky Horse Park. He was seen lastly on the track during the race in Turfway Park. He is one of the thoroughbred greats.

Such there are lots of famous race horses everywhere due to their performances, thrilling races or due to their victories. Some special websites are opened for such horses with their photos. Some other names of the famous race horses are sunny bay, Swain, red rum, Smarty Jones, Man O’ war, Forego etc. The list of such famous race horses is endless.

Muna wa Wanjiru is a Web Administrator and Has Been Researching and Reporting on Horse Racing for Years. For More Information on Famous Race Horses, Visit His Site at FAMOUS RACE HORSES

Horse Training Tips – The Dos and Don’ts

By admin on Monday, August 23rd, 2010 | No Comments

Horse training is a serious matter. Some people spend a whole lot of money just to get the best horse trainer in town. But what if you have no extra money to spend and you need to train your horse? The next question would be what are the best horse training tips?

First, you have to create a powerful communication technique that you can use. Since horses don’t understand the human language, you can start off by using single or simple words. Next you can couple those words with hand signals and gestures. Repeat and reiterate so the horse can grasp the first lessons that you are teaching. Like humans, it is best to develop a sort of bond between each other. This way, your horse can understand the message that you are putting across. Third, don’t pressure or put your horse under stressful conditions. It will surely cause a retort. Fourth, each horse is different. They have varying learning capabilities. Fifth, never force, whip, whirl, kick or strike your horse during training. You will surely get an equally negative reaction. Not only that, your horse might easily give up on learning, putting to waste all of your efforts. In the learning process, you must also learn how to identify when your horse has a problem or if it does not feel well.

Training a horse is certainly not an easy task. It takes hard work, willpower, patience and of course you should have the skill. Treat your horse as a human being and act as a herd leader; these are surefire horse training tips that will lead to a successful learning.

Are you looking for more information on horse training tips? Visit http://www.horsetrainingtips.org today for more information!

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